2026 IPO Wave
Which AI-Powered Startups & Tech Giants Are Poised To Go Public & What It Means For Investors & Competitors
By Rizwan Zulfiqar Bhutta
As we enter February 2026, the tech IPO market is gaining serious momentum after a gradual rebound in 2025. Initial public offerings picked up last year, particularly among venture-backed companies demonstrating strong performance, and experts now see 2026 shaping up as a potentially blockbuster year. This surge is largely fueled by artificial intelligence, where the focus has shifted from experimental hype to profitable, scalable execution. Venture capital flooded into AI last year, with massive rounds concentrated among a handful of leaders, creating a pipeline of high-value companies ready to tap public markets for the enormous capital needed to fuel further growth in compute, infrastructure, and applications.
The macroeconomic environment supports this optimism, with stock markets near highs, investor appetite for AI-driven stories remaining robust, and expectations of continued stability helping to reopen the IPO window. Profitable or near-profitable AI plays, especially those with clear paths to revenue growth and positive metrics like strong rule-of-40 scores (combining growth and profitability), stand out as prime candidates. At the same time, challenges persist, including high capital intensity, cash burn concerns in some cases, and the risk of market saturation from large share issuances.
Still, the stage is set for some of the largest public debuts in history, potentially reshaping funding landscapes, merger activity, and sector priorities in areas like defense and robotics. Several AI-powered companies are at the forefront of this wave. OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, is frequently cited as eyeing a major listing later in the year, with valuations discussed in the high hundreds of billions to potentially $1 trillion. Its revenue has grown dramatically, reaching annualized figures in the tens of billions, supported by partnerships that bolster its infrastructure capabilities, though questions around governance, profitability timelines, and competitive pressures linger.
Anthropic, emphasizing safety-focused models like Claude, is also advancing preparations, with reports of hiring advisors and projections for extraordinary revenue ramps that could position it for an early or mid-year debut at valuations potentially in the hundreds of billions. Its enterprise appeal and backing from major players make it a strong contender to reach the public market swiftly.
Databricks, the data and AI platform powerhouse, remains a perennial name on watchlists, now at valuations well above $100 billion after recent funding. With revenue run rates exceeding several billion, significant year-over-year growth, and portions tied directly to AI products, plus positive cash flow signals, it appears well-positioned for a public offering that could provide liquidity and fuel expansion.
Cohere, specializing in secure, enterprise-grade models for governments and businesses, has expressed public interest in listing soon, backed by strong recurring revenue and partnerships. Infrastructure players like Crusoe Energy Systems, focused on efficient AI data centers, are also highlighted as probable candidates, capitalizing on the exploding demand for compute resources.
Beyond core AI labs and platforms, broader ecosystems are in play. SpaceX, often discussed in tandem with AI advancements through related ventures, could pursue a massive public debut mid-year, blending space exploration with emerging tech capabilities and potentially commanding enormous valuations. In defense, Anduril continues to draw attention for its AI-driven autonomous systems, drones, and surveillance tech. While no firm date is locked in, its rapid scaling, manufacturing expansions, and alignment with national security priorities position it as a candidate for 2026 or shortly thereafter, riding waves of modernization and policy support.
Robotics emerges as another exciting frontier, with humanoid and embodied AI advancing quickly. Chinese players like Unitree Robotics have completed preparatory steps for listings, with ambitious valuations discussed in the billions, fueled by shipments, partnerships, and the push for technological self-reliance. U.S. and global firms in physical AI and automation could follow similar paths, though timelines remain fluid amid consolidation and competitive pressures.
Funding trends underscore AI’s dominance, with private investment heavily skewed toward the sector, mega-rounds for top players, and expectations of continued growth in venture dollars focused on scalable winners. Merger and acquisition activity has rebounded sharply, driven by strategic needs for talent, technology, and market position in a competitive landscape. Large incumbents and scaled startups alike pursue deals to accelerate capabilities, especially in AI, cybersecurity, and infrastructure, while secondaries provide liquidity alternatives. This consolidation wave rewards execution and punishes middling performers, with acqui-hires and tuck-ins becoming common for early-stage innovation.
Sector focus sharpens on defense and robotics alongside core AI. Defense benefits from AI integration in intelligence, drones, and cyber operations, with startups like Anduril leading in efficiency and autonomy amid geopolitical shifts. Robotics sees acceleration through humanoid platforms for manufacturing, logistics, and beyond, though challenges in generalization, reliability, and cost persist. Overall, these areas attract concentrated capital as investors bet on transformative applications.
For investors, this IPO wave presents rare opportunities to access high-growth stories directly, potentially delivering substantial returns in AI ecosystems. Proxy exposure through ETFs or established players remains viable, but direct listings from these mega-companies could broaden participation and provide fresh benchmarks for valuation. Risks include overvaluation pressures, execution shortfalls, volatility from large issuances, and broader market corrections if enthusiasm wanes. Diversification and focus on fundamentals like sustainable paths to profitability will be key.
For competitors, the implications are profound. Incumbents face intensified pressure to innovate or acquire, while the public market spotlight forces greater transparency and discipline. M&A could accelerate as private firms seek scale before listing or as public entities consolidate to defend moats. Talent wars intensify, and the bar for differentiation rises in crowded fields.
In summary, February 2026 marks the early stages of what could become a defining IPO cycle for AI and adjacent technologies. This isn’t just about listings—it’s about channeling capital into ecosystems that promise real productivity leaps, while testing whether private-market exuberance translates to durable public value. The year ahead will reward those demonstrating execution amid the noise, potentially ushering in a new era of tech-driven transformation across industries.
